Forecasting and analysis of energy consumption and waste generation in Antalya with SVR

Abstract

Antalya, a rapidly expanding coastal city in Türkiye, has experienced significant changes due to urbanization and increasing tourism activities. Comprehending tourism trends is crucial for the city's sustainable development and environmental management. Based on this perspective, this paper aims to present a comprehensive retrospective analysis of Antalya's energy consumption, domestic solid waste generation, wastewater generation, population growth, and tourist numbers over the years. Antalya faces significant challenges due to escalating trends in listed areas. Utilizing the Support Vector Regression, this study projects a need for an additional 1715 GWh of electricity production capacity, an expansion of wastewater capacity by 85639 thousand m3, and an increase in domestic solid waste disposal capacity by 597745 tons by 2028 to accommodate growing demands. We emphasize the importance of adopting effective policies and strategies to support energy efficiency, waste reduction, and wastewater management alongside sustainable urban planning and tourism management for Antalya's long-Term environmental sustainability and development. The findings presented in this study provide valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders to make informed decisions, ensuring a balanced approach toward economic growth and environmental conservation.