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dc.contributor.authorZittis, Georgeen_US
dc.contributor.authorHadjinicolaou, Panosen_US
dc.contributor.authorAlmazroui, Mansouren_US
dc.contributor.authorBucchignani, Edoardoen_US
dc.contributor.authorDriouech, Fatimaen_US
dc.contributor.authorEl Rhaz, Khaliden_US
dc.contributor.authorKurnaz, Leventen_US
dc.contributor.authorNikulin, Grigoryen_US
dc.contributor.authorNtoumos, Athanasiosen_US
dc.contributor.authorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.identifier.citationZittis, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., Almazroui, M., Bucchignani, E., Driouech, F., El Rhaz, K., Kurnaz, L., Nikulin, G., Ntoumos, A. & Öztürk, T. (2021). Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa. NPJ Climate And Atmospheric Science, 4(1), 1-9. doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7en_US
dc.description.abstractGlobal climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 degrees C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was supported by the EMME-CARE project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program, under Grant Agreement No. 856612, as well as matching co-funding by the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. It was co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Innovation Foundation CELSIUS Project EXCELLENCE/1216/0039.en_US
dc.publisherNature Researchen_US
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States*
dc.titleBusiness-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africaen_US
dc.description.versionPublisher's Versionen_US
dc.relation.journalNPJ Climate And Atmospheric Scienceen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIşık Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, Fizik Bölümüen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIşık University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Physicsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.contributor.institutionauthorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US

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