Covid-19, populism, and political change in Turkey

Abstract

COVID-19 hit Turkey in the middle of an economic crisis and a rivalry between Erdogan's populist government and opposition mayors, particularly Istanbul mayor Imamoglu. The pandemic's impact on this rivalry will depend on how their support groups are affected. Citizens' increased tolerance of submission to a central authority and their increased dependence on economic assistance could contribute to Erdogan's position, while a lack of available funds to distribute would threaten it. Meanwhile, Imamoglu has successfully been using certain elements of populism like his rival, but with more concern for democracy and sustainability. If he retains his popularity, the nightmare of the ruling party may come true: Imamoglu could run against Erdogan in the 2023 presidential elections with a good chance of winning.