Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study
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Date
2021-12Author
Spinoni, JonathanBarbosa, Paulo
Bucchignani, Edoardo
Cassano, John
Cavazos, Tereza
Cescatti, Alessandro
Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
Christensen, Ole Bossing
Coppola, Erika
Evans, Jason
Forzieri, Giovanni
Geyer, Beate
Giorgi, Filippo
Jacob, Daniela
Katzfey, Jack
Koenigk, Torben
Laprise, Rene
Lennard, Christopher John
Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent
Li, Delei
Llopart, Marta
McCormick, Niall
Naumann, Gustavo
Nikulin, Grigory
Öztürk, Tuğba
Panitz, Hans-Jurgen
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio
Solman, Silvina Alicia
Syktus, Jozef
Tangang, Fredolin
Teichmann, Claas
Vautard, Robert
Vogt, Jurgen Valentin
Winger, Katja
Zittis, George
Dosio, Alessandro
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Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., Bucchignani, E., Cassano, J., Cavazos, T., Cescatti, A., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Coppola, E., Evans, J., Forzieri, G., Geyer, B., Giorgi, F., Jacob, D., Katzfey, J., Koenigk, T., Laprise, R., Lennard, C. J., Kurnaz, M. L., Li, Delei., Llopart, M., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Nikulin, G., Öztürk, T., Panitz, H.-J., da Rocha, R. P., Solman, S. A., Syktus, J., Tangang, F., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Vogt, J. V., Winger, K., Zittis, G. & Dosio, A. (2021). Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study. International Journal Of Climatology, 41(15), 6825-6853. doi: 10.1002/joc.7302Abstract
Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4 degrees C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4 degrees C, approximately 2 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests (49%), 6 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (78%), and 12 center dot 10(6) km(2) of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
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International Journal Of ClimatologyVolume
41Issue
15Collections
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