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    Debating voter defection in Turkey
    (Routledge, 2023-10-20) Balta, Evren; Demiralp, Seda; Demiralp, Selva
    This study examines patterns of voter defection from Turkey’s incumbent AKP amid major economic and democratic decline. As in other electoral autocracies, defectors constitute a small but politically significant group in Turkey, where the opposition’s ability to secure a transition from authoritarianism depends on reducing the incumbent’s vote share. Based on survey data gathered in November 2021 and February 2022, we find that while the high level of partizanship among AKP voters hinders defection, persistent economic and democratic decline still reduces incumbent support. We also found that defections are higher outside of the lowest income group. Our findings have important implications for opposition strategies in electoral autocracies. Directing public debate away from identity issues to economic and democratic problems increases the likelihood of defection. In addition, offering voters clear superior alternatives decreases the cost of uncertainty that comes with change and increases the likelihood of defection.
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    Erosion of Central Bank independence in Turkey
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2019-01-01) Demiralp, Seda; Demiralp, Selva
    This study provides empirical analysis to show increasing pressures over the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) throughout the past decade where the CBT gives into such pressures, despite the Central Bank Law, which ensures tool independence. The study suggests that the relations between the government and the CBT reflect recent political changes where the government increased its control over state institutions, following rising costs of losing office. However, this trend not only has economic costs such as a restricted capacity to achieve price stability and sustainable growth but it also limits horizontal accountability of state institutions.
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    The rational Islamic actor? Evidence from Islamic banking
    (Cambridge University Press, 2015-05) Demiralp, Seda; Demiralp, Selva
    Islamic banks create an interest in their own right as a rising branch in financial intermediation, particularly in the post-crisis era. In addition, they also deserve the attention of students of Islamism due to their possible connection with Islamic movements. Through a comparison of Islamic and conventional banking, we analyze the motivations and behavior of Islamic economic actors who determine the cash flow to Islamic banks. Our findings suggest that, in contrast to popular views that portray these actors as ideologues or financiers of radical Islam, they have pragmatic motivations and may adapt to liberal systems in order to seize economic incentives.
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    The state of property development in Turkey: facts and comparisons
    (Cambridge University Press, 2016-09-01) Demiralp, Seda; Demiralp, Selva; Gümüş, İnci
    In this article, we investigate economic and political developments in Turkey's construction sector over the last decade and consider their implications. We find that during the first term of the government of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalklnma Partisi, AKP), thanks to administrative and economic incentives, both private and public construction rose considerably. Despite the construction sector's contribution to growth, there is also evidence of a transfer from the industrial sector toward the construction sector, which led to significant decline in the trend growth of the industrial sector in the era prior to 2006. Such evidence disappears in the post-crisis period, when the growth of private construction slows. However, overcentralization, clientelism, an absence of transparency, and limitations on citizen participation in urban planning remain as problems that need to be addressed through urban reform.