Simulations of future drought conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM 4.3.5

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dc.authorid0000-0001-8598-8596
dc.authorid0000-0002-3980-2153
dc.authorid0000-0002-9637-4044
dc.authorid0000-0003-3050-9847
dc.contributor.authorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.contributor.authorTurp, Mustafa Tufanen_US
dc.contributor.authorTürkeş, Muraten_US
dc.contributor.authorKurnaz, Mehmet Leventen_US
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-25T12:26:31Z
dc.date.available2026-02-25T12:26:31Z
dc.date.issued2015-01-14
dc.departmentIşık Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, Fizik Bölümüen_US
dc.departmentIşık University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Physicsen_US
dc.description.abstractIn this work, projected future changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation climatology, inter-annual and seasonal variability and climatic aridity/humidity conditions for the period 2070-2100 over the large Central Asia region with respect to present climate (from 1970 to 2000) were simulated based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX Region 8. We investigated the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.3.5 in reproducing observed climatology over the domain of Central Asia by using 2 different global climate model outputs. For the future climatology of the domain, the regional model predicts relatively high warming in the warm season and northern part of the domain at cold season with a decrease in precipitation almost all part of the domain. The results of our study show that surface temperatures in the region will increase from 3 °C up to more than 7 °C on average according to the emission scenarios for the period 2070-2100 with respect to past period 1970-2000. Therefore, the projected warming and decrease in precipitation and also resultant or associated increased aridity and more frequent and severe drought events very likely adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of this region, which is already characterised with mostly arid and semi-arid climate and ecosystems.en_US
dc.description.versionPublisher's Versionen_US
dc.identifier.citationÖztürk, T., Turp, M. T., Türkeş, M. & Kurnaz, M. L. (2015). Simulations of future drought conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM 4.3.5. Paper presented at the International Conference on Climate Change Innovation and Resilience for Sustainable Livelihood, 91-95.en_US
dc.identifier.endpage95
dc.identifier.startpage91
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11729/7062
dc.institutionauthorÖztürk, Tuğbaen_US
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0001-8598-8596
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.publicationstatusPublisheden_US
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Conference on Climate Change Innovation and Resilience for Sustainable Livelihooden_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryKonferans Öğesi - Uluslararası - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectCentral Asiaen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectRegCMen_US
dc.titleSimulations of future drought conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM 4.3.5en_US
dc.typeConference Objecten_US
dspace.entity.typePublicationen_US

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