Backcasting Bitcoin prices: implementation with ARCH & GARCH models

Bitcoin, the first decentralized cryptocurrency, has gained popularity among investors for several reasons. Its potential for high returns makes it attractive to those seeking alternatives to traditional investments. Bitcoin's volatility provides both risk and reward, drawing in speculative investors. Moreover, Bitcoin operates independently of central banks or governments, appealing to those wary of inflation and economic instability. As more businesses and financial institutions adopt Bitcoin as an investment tool and a medium of exchange, its appeal continues to grow. For institutional investors, Bitcoin offers a way to diversify portfolios amid low interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. However, the volatility in Bitcoin markets tends to be a risk exposure, so developing models to understand Bitcoin fluctuations is crucial to determining more about market behavior. Accurate financial models help predict price movements, manage risk, and identify macroeconomic correlations. Given its complexity, these models are essential for long-term investors to navigate volatility and optimize their investment strategies. This research employs ARCH and GARCH models to forecast Bitcoin volatility. The outputs indicate that ARIMA is the best fit model that explains Bitcoin’s price fluctuations in the selected data period.