Advanced drought analysis using a novel copula-based multivariate index: a case study of the Ceyhan River Basin

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dc.authorid0009-0003-7404-281X
dc.authorid0000-0002-4531-2476
dc.contributor.authorTerzi, Tolga Barışen_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnöz, Bihraten_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-08-26T12:18:53Z
dc.date.available2025-08-26T12:18:53Z
dc.date.issued2025-02
dc.departmentIşık Üniversitesi, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.departmentIşık University, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Department of Civil Engineeringen_US
dc.description.abstractDrought is a severe natural disaster that poses significant risks to both social and ecological systems. Detecting drought is challenging due to its gradual development, which makes it difficult to identify and predict, often resulting in significant impacts on the affected regions. Therefore, accurate and dependable monitoring of drought conditions is essential for the development and implementation of effective mitigation strategies. Drought indices play a crucial role in monitoring drought conditions, with single-variable indices commonly employed in the literature to evaluate drought severity. While these indices are typically effective at characterizing the specific type of drought for which they were designed, they often fall short in offering a comprehensive view of overall drought conditions. The multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) is a comprehensive tool that assesses drought conditions by integrating multiple hydrometeorological variables. Widely employed in the literature in both parametric and empirical forms, the MSDI is recognized for its effectiveness in detecting drought in an integrated manner. This study focuses on a particular challenge related to the calculation of MSDI using copula families. The novel methodology introduced in this paper involves selecting the most suitable copula family for each data subset using AIC and BIC criteria. Rather than applying a single copula family to the entire dataset, this approach utilizes multiple copula families for different subsets, thereby ensuring optimal modeling for each distinct group of data. The Ceyhan River Basin (CRB) is used as a case study to apply the proposed methodology. The drought characteristics of the basin are analyzed using both the newly developed MSDI and conventional single-variable indices, and the performance of the new methodology is evaluated. The application of this approach in the CRB demonstrated its effectiveness in identifying both concurrent and isolated occurrences of meteorological and hydrological droughts, thereby facilitating a more integrated and precise assessment of drought characteristics. Results indicated that the proposed MSDI detected drought events that were overlooked by single-variable indices and improved classification accuracy over the conventional MSDI.en_US
dc.description.versionPublisher's Versionen_US
dc.identifier.citationTerzi, T. B. & Önöz, B. (2025). Advanced drought analysis using a novel copula-based multivariate index: a case study of the Ceyhan River Basin. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 11(1), 1-19. doi:10.1007/s40899-025-01189-5en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s40899-025-01189-5
dc.identifier.endpage19
dc.identifier.issn2363-5037
dc.identifier.issn2363-5045
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85218151916
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11729/6659
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-025-01189-5
dc.identifier.volume11
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001403167600001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakEmerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)en_US
dc.institutionauthorÖnöz, Bihraten_US
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0002-4531-2476
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.publicationstatusPublisheden_US
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbHen_US
dc.relation.ispartofSustainable Water Resources Managementen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectCopulaen_US
dc.subjectDroughten_US
dc.subjectMultivariate standardized drought indexen_US
dc.subjectStandardized precipitation indexen_US
dc.subjectStandardized streamflow indexen_US
dc.subjectCeyhan Basinen_US
dc.subjectTurkeyen_US
dc.subjectRiversen_US
dc.subjectWatershedsen_US
dc.subjectCase-studiesen_US
dc.subjectDrought characteristicsen_US
dc.subjectDrought conditionsen_US
dc.subjectRiver basinsen_US
dc.subjectSingle variableen_US
dc.subjectStandardized streamflow indicesen_US
dc.subjectVariable indicesen_US
dc.subjectMitigationen_US
dc.subjectMonitoringen_US
dc.subjectNatural disasteren_US
dc.subjectPrecipitation assessmenten_US
dc.subjectStreamflowen_US
dc.subjectHydrological droughten_US
dc.subjectFrequencyen_US
dc.subjectDeficiten_US
dc.subjectSeyhanen_US
dc.titleAdvanced drought analysis using a novel copula-based multivariate index: a case study of the Ceyhan River Basinen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublicationen_US

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