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Yayın Impacts of climate change on precipitation climatology and variability in Turkey(Springer International Publishing Ag, 2020) Türkeş, Murat; Turp, M. Tufan; An, Nazan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this chapter, changes in seasonal precipitation climatology, extreme weather conditions, and aridity conditions of Turkey are evaluated for the period of 2021-2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971-2000 by using regional climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The outputs of MPI-ESM-MR are used to generate 10 km resolution data by the double nesting method under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in reproducing the observed climatology over Turkey is tested by using the output of the global climate model. The projection results show a strong decrease in precipitation for almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional model. The intensity of drought conditions is projected to increase. According to the projection results, more arid conditions are expected in the region for the near future. Therefore, drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more intensely over Turkey.Yayın Technical climate change adaptation options of the major ski resorts in Bulgaria(Springer International Publishing, 2016-01-01) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClimate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry, whose survival is highly dependent on the existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. For this matter, it is even now more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by various measures at the technical, operational, and political levels. Technically speaking, snowmaking has become the method most used throughout the industry to combat the immediate impacts of climate change, while moving the ski areas to higher terrains has been standing out as an another option, wherever available and feasible. In this study, the aim is to project the future climatic changes in snowmaking capacity; in other words, technical snow reliability, and the moving requirements, if any, of the four major ski resorts in Bulgaria for the period of 2016-2030 with respect to the control period of 1991- 2005. For this purpose, the past and the future climatic conditions for the technical snow reliability of the ski resorts and their immediate surroundings are determined by the temperature and the relative humidity values generated and projected through the Regional Climate Model RegCM 4.4 of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) by scaling the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR of Max Planck Institute for Meteorology down to a resolution of 10 km. The model is further processed according to the recent RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration scenarios of the IPCC. The model outputs on air temperature and relative humidity are utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures through psychographic conversions that ultimately provide us with thresholds for snowmaking limits. Findings display the temporal changes in the snowmaking hours of the ski resorts at various altitudinal levels calculated according to the environmental lapse rates. Such displays can guide the practitioners in considering investment lives and moving the ski resorts according to optimistic and pessimistic projections.Yayın The Climate Change Impacts on the regional crop yield in Turkey(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2015-04-17) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThis paper emphasizes the relationship between climate change and crop yield in Turkey and discusses how the variables representing the climate change impacts affect the regional crop yield in Turkey. The impacts of climate change are represented as the function of vulnerability for the period of 1980-2010. There are 2 steps in this research. Firstly, regional climate modeling is conducted for obtaining to the climatic parameters, namely total precipitation and mean air temperature. We focus on the role of those climatic variables on the crop yield. The projections were performed according to the scenarios of IPCC, namely RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5. According to the regional model results, it is seen that there will be an increase up to the 4 ◦C in mean air temperatures of Turkey for the period of 2020 – 2050 with respect to the period of 1970 – 2000 and also precipitation climatology of Turkey shows a decrease up to 1.2 mm/day. In the second part of the study, climatic parameters are combined and interpreted together through the panel data analysis and we examined that how the variables representing the climate change impacts have an influence on the crop yield in the some crucial regions for the crop production of Turkey. Estimated risks for crops in the panel data analysis differ from each other resulting from increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall.Yayın Impacts of the future changes in extreme events on the regional crop yield in Turkey(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThe changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey.Yayın Impacts of the future changes in extreme events on migration in the Middle East(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventNatural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis.
