2 sonuçlar
Arama Sonuçları
Listeleniyor 1 - 2 / 2
Yayın Impacts of the future changes in extreme events on the regional crop yield in Turkey(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThe changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey.Yayın Impacts of the future changes in extreme events on migration in the Middle East(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventNatural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis.
