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Yayın Paradox of optimism: opposition coordination against autocratic incumbents in Turkey’s 2019 and 2023 elections(Routledge, 2024) Balta, Evren; Demiralp, SedaIn the 2019 local and 2023 general elections, Turkey’s opposition parties joined forces in pursuit of a common objective: to oust autocratic incumbents and democratize the political system. While they achieved noteworthy successes in 2019, replicating these gains in the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections proved elusive. This study reveals that coordinating opposition efforts becomes more challenging during general elections, particularly when a charismatic presidential candidate, capable of fostering synergy among opposition factions and voters, is absent. Additionally, when opposition parties span the ideological spec-trum, crafting a unified campaign around a shared manifesto becomes more intricate. The resulting atmosphere of uncertainty is exacerbated further in the absence of decisive leadership. Most importantly, the research highlights a paradox: as optimism for electoral victory grows, parties become more inclined to form alliances but less willing to nominate a strong leader, due to con-cerns about power-sharing overshadowing electoral success. This paradox diminishes the chances of opposition victory.Yayın Debating voter defection in Turkey(Routledge, 2023-10-20) Balta, Evren; Demiralp, Seda; Demiralp, SelvaThis study examines patterns of voter defection from Turkey’s incumbent AKP amid major economic and democratic decline. As in other electoral autocracies, defectors constitute a small but politically significant group in Turkey, where the opposition’s ability to secure a transition from authoritarianism depends on reducing the incumbent’s vote share. Based on survey data gathered in November 2021 and February 2022, we find that while the high level of partizanship among AKP voters hinders defection, persistent economic and democratic decline still reduces incumbent support. We also found that defections are higher outside of the lowest income group. Our findings have important implications for opposition strategies in electoral autocracies. Directing public debate away from identity issues to economic and democratic problems increases the likelihood of defection. In addition, offering voters clear superior alternatives decreases the cost of uncertainty that comes with change and increases the likelihood of defection.Yayın Defeating populists: the case of 2019 Istanbul elections(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2021-01-02) Demiralp, Seda; Balta, EvrenHow can populist competitive authoritarian regimes be defeated through elections? In this article, we focus on the 2019 municipal campaign strategy of the opposition Istanbul candidate Ekrem Imamoglu as a case study of a successful challenge to a populist competitive authoritarian regime. We argue that such regimes may be prone to defeat when their opponents use what we call an 'inverted populist' strategy. This strategy involves three key elements: adopting an indirect and gradualist approach that avoids direct confrontation with the populist leader and the popular values s/he represents, redefining the 'the people' by including previously excluded groups, and promising redistribution to disadvantaged groups.
