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Yayın Paradox of optimism: opposition coordination against autocratic incumbents in Turkey’s 2019 and 2023 elections(Routledge, 2024) Balta, Evren; Demiralp, SedaIn the 2019 local and 2023 general elections, Turkey’s opposition parties joined forces in pursuit of a common objective: to oust autocratic incumbents and democratize the political system. While they achieved noteworthy successes in 2019, replicating these gains in the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections proved elusive. This study reveals that coordinating opposition efforts becomes more challenging during general elections, particularly when a charismatic presidential candidate, capable of fostering synergy among opposition factions and voters, is absent. Additionally, when opposition parties span the ideological spec-trum, crafting a unified campaign around a shared manifesto becomes more intricate. The resulting atmosphere of uncertainty is exacerbated further in the absence of decisive leadership. Most importantly, the research highlights a paradox: as optimism for electoral victory grows, parties become more inclined to form alliances but less willing to nominate a strong leader, due to con-cerns about power-sharing overshadowing electoral success. This paradox diminishes the chances of opposition victory.Yayın Debating voter defection in Turkey(Routledge, 2023-10-20) Balta, Evren; Demiralp, Seda; Demiralp, SelvaThis study examines patterns of voter defection from Turkey’s incumbent AKP amid major economic and democratic decline. As in other electoral autocracies, defectors constitute a small but politically significant group in Turkey, where the opposition’s ability to secure a transition from authoritarianism depends on reducing the incumbent’s vote share. Based on survey data gathered in November 2021 and February 2022, we find that while the high level of partizanship among AKP voters hinders defection, persistent economic and democratic decline still reduces incumbent support. We also found that defections are higher outside of the lowest income group. Our findings have important implications for opposition strategies in electoral autocracies. Directing public debate away from identity issues to economic and democratic problems increases the likelihood of defection. In addition, offering voters clear superior alternatives decreases the cost of uncertainty that comes with change and increases the likelihood of defection.Yayın “Biraderler rejimi”nden “zorba biraderin rejimi”ne: otoriter sağ popülizm, liberal demokrasi ve toplumsal cinsiyet(Rasim Özgür DÖNMEZ, 2023-06-13) Demiralp, Seda; Sayan Cengiz, FeydaOtoriter sağ popülizmin yükselişinde, anti-feminist ve reaksiyoner söylem ve politikaların etkili olduğu, sağ popülist liderlerin siyasi iletişim ve üsluplarında da erkeklik vurgusunun yoğunluğu, popülizme toplumsal cinsiyet perspektifinden bakan araştırmacıların sıklıkla vurguladığı bir nokta olagelmiştir. Bu çalışma, otoriter sağ popülist liderlerin, liberal demokrasiye itiraz ederken, neden agresif bir maskülinist söylemi merkeze aldığı sorusuna yanıt aramaktadır. Otoriter sağ popülizm, liberal demokrasinin temsil ve çoğulculuk anlayışına karşı çıkarken nasıl bir toplumsal cinsiyet tahayyülüyle hareket etmektedir? Bu soruya yanıt ararken, feminist teorinin liberal demokrasi eleştirisinden ve analitik bir araç olarak aile metaforundan, özellikle de “kardeşler arası ilişkiler” metaforundan yararlanıyoruz. Çalışmada, otoriter sağ popülizmin, halkı homojen bir yapı olarak, lideri ise halk ile yekvücut olarak kurgulayışına odaklanıyor ve farklılıklara karşı takınılan agresif tavrın temelindeki toplumsal cinsiyet tahayyüllerinin analizini sunuyoruz.Yayın The strongman vs. the sage? Populist performances and political masculinities in the 2023 Turkish elections(Routledge, 2026-02) Sayan Cengiz, Feyda; Demiralp, SedaAuthoritarian populist performances are deeply intertwined with particular ways of ‘doing masculinity’. Previous studies have shown that combative, aggressive, ‘rule-breaking’ performances of masculinity enabled populist opposition leaders to enact and perform anti-elite populist discourses, facilitating the mobilisation of discontent. The case of Turkey, a resilient case of authoritarian populism, demonstrates that performances of masculinity also serve incumbent populists to cast themselves as protectors of society, reinvigorate their paternalist claims to legitimacy and amplify the affective dimension of their messages. This dynamic becomes especially prominent during election campaigns, where performances of masculinity become a significant part of the contest between populist incumbents and their opponents. Focusing on Turkey’s 2023 presidential election and the campaigns of the two main contenders–incumbent President Erdoğan and opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu–the study argues that authoritarian populist leaders perform combative, aggressive masculinity to project competence even during economic downturns or institutional decay. In doing so, they further masculinise the political sphere, relegating rivals to subordinate positions within a symbolic hierarchy of masculinities and marginalising alternative models of leadership. The study contributes to understanding the gendered performative dimensions that play into the resilience of authoritarian populism.
