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Yayın A measurement of dollarization(PressAcademia, 2023-02-01) Teker, Suat; Teker, Dilek; Güzelsoy, HalitPurpose- Dollarization refers to the use of foreign currency instead of domestic currency by citizens as a result of macroeconomic instabilities. Generally, due to the instability caused by inflation, the local currency loses its functions as a unit of account, a store of value, and in the last stage, a medium of exchange. Partial dollarization is the fulfillment of any of the three functions of money by a foreign currency. The purpose of this study is to measure the dollarization level of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022 (a 23-year period). This study employs the most comprehensive definition of portfolios of Turkish Lira and foreign currency to measure the degree of asset and liability dollarization. This study measures the dollarization degree of the Turkish economy by using the composite dollarization index developed by Reinhart et al., (2003). Methodology- The composite dollarization index based on the definition by Reinhart et al., 2003, has two components; asset dollarization and liability dollarization. This study measures the level of dollarization by using Reinhart's definition of the Turkish economy between 2000 and 2022. We construct the asset dollarization as a ratio of the foreign currency portfolio to the total portfolio. Liability dollarization is defined as the sum of the ratio of foreign currency credit to the total credit, the ratio of the domestic debt in foreign currency to the total domestic debt, and the ratio of total external debt to the GDP. The composite dollarization index is the sum of asset dollarization and liability dollarization. Findings- The dollarization in bank deposits rose to 57%in 2001 and then dropped to 27% in 2010. The dollarization in bank deposits has started to rise again since 2013. The increase in dollarization in bank deposits has accelerated since 2021. It reached 70% by the middle of 2022. Asset dollarization has a similar path to the dollarization in bank deposits. The level of the asset dollarization is generally lower than the level of the deposit dollarization for all years examined. The liability dollarization also follows a similar path. As the degree of asset dollarization increases, the degree of liability dollarization also increases. Finally, the composite dollarization index has been rapidly increasing since 2010. Conclusion- As discussed extensively in the literature, the degree of dollarization is an important indicator of a healthy economy. The literature supports that there is a strong link between the degree of dollarization and macroeconomic indicators. When economic instabilities are on the screen, the use of a stable foreign currency instead of domestic currency increases. Some previous studies measured the dollarization by considering only asset dollarization or only liability dollarization may have deficiencies in the comprehensive definition of dollarization. Therefore, a comprehensive measurement of dollarization should better consider both the assets and liabilities of the balance sheets. The empirical findings of this study indicate that the degree of dollarization has been increasing since 2013 and the rate of increase accelerated especially after 2021 based on the comprehensive dollarization index constructed.Yayın AB-27 ülkeleri ve Türkiye'de ekonomik büyümeyi etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi: statik panel veri modeli uygulaması(2014) Pala, Aynur; Teker, DilekBu çalışmada, 2000-2011 yıllarına ilişkin EU-27 ülkeleri ve Türkiye için ekonomik büyümeyi etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Analizde, gayri safi milli hasıla (GSYİH) büyümesi, nüfus artışı, bankacılık sektörünün yurtiçine sağladığı kredilerinin GSYİH'ye oranı, özel sektör kredilerinin GSYİH'ye oranı, dış ticaret hacminin GSYİH'ye oranı, tüketici enflasyonu ve net tasarrufların Gayri Safi Milli Hasıla (GSMH)'ya oranı değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Ekonometrik model statik panel veri regresyonu ile tahmin edilmiştir. Model sonuçlarına göre, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde, nüfus artışı, özel sektör kredilerinin GSYİH'ye oranı, net tasarrufların GSMH'ye oranı değişkenleri pozitif yönde etkili iken, tüketici enflasyonu ve bankacılık sektörünün yurtiçine sağladığı kredilerinin GSYİH oranı gibi değişkenler negatif yönde etkilidir.Yayın Determinants of foreign direct investments: comparative analysis for Brazil, China, South Korea and Turkey(PressAcademia, 2021-07-30) Kılıç, Fatih; Teker, DilekPurpose- With the globalization race gaining momentum after 1980, investments in developing countries increased significantly with the removal of obstacles to capital flows. With the effect of the globalization phenomenon in the world economy, developing countries have sought to meet the capitals they need with foreign investments. Until the 1980s, foreign direct investments were subject to serious restrictions. The priority of foreign direct investment was South Korea and Brazil in the early days. These two countries were followed by many emergency countries with development potential, and Turkey was trying to be included in this group. In the early 2000s, the biggest factor behind China's huge growth was the directing of foreign investments to China. In this study, inflation rate, unemployment rate and the index of industrial production, foreign direct investment coming to Brasil, China, South Korea and Turkey are examined on whether this is effective. Methodology- The data used in statistical tests are foreign direct investments, inflation, unemployment and the industrial production index, which has the largest share in GDP and allows interpretation without GDP being announced. All monthly data used in the tests are gathered from the Reuters, Bloomberg, UCTAD and the World Bank that covers periods from January 2012 to December 2020. Initially, unit root tests were performed to determine whether the data was stable.There are 3 basic critical points to understand whether unit root tests are stationary or not. After that, the VAR model has been applied. But before that coordinates all selected variables together and examines the integrity of the system, it is required to determine the appropriate lag length in order to make assumptions correct. The are five most common methods for determining lag lengths. In order to understand whether there is a long-term relationship between variables or not that are determined to be stationary, Johansen Cointegration test has been applied. Trace Statistics and the Max-Eigenvalue statistics were used in this test. And also impulse-response functions are obtained. Variance decomposition investigates which percentage of the change in a variable is caused by itself and which percentage is caused by other variables. Findings- All data have been converted into percentages by taking changes compared to the previous month. It has been modeled by getting the absolute values and logarithms of the data. For all 4 countries the series are found out to be stationary at level. ADF unit root test performed, then the appropriate length level determined. According to LR Test Statistics, Final Prediction Error, Akaike Information Criteria, Hannan-Quinn Information Criteria and Schwarz Information Criteria, the appropriate lang length appears as 1. According to the cointegration test result, cointegration was determined between all countries and all data. Impulse response graphs were indicated that all variables respond in a reducing way to decreasing shocks occurred in each indicator. Shocks have lost their effect on average in 4-5 months. According to the variance decomposition results, variables were the power of explanation over each other. Conclusion- In the Brasil, China, South Korea and Turkish economy, it is seen that there is a close relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth indicators inflation, unemployment, industrial production index in the long term. According to the output of analyses, it is necessary to create the appropriate physical environment for increasing foreign capital investments, to ensure domestic economic, political and legal stability, to make arrangements that encourage foreign capital. Especially, a policy should be followed to decrease inflation and unemployment rates, which are indicators of economic growth and GDP should be risen by increasing industrial production. Coming from the foreign investments should become from the type of foreign direct investment and it should be supplied that these investments both create new markets and new employment areas by establishing a new facility.Yayın Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi(PressAcademia, 2020-12-31) Kılıç, Fatih; Teker, DilekAmac?- Bu çalışmada enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı ve sanayi üretim endeksinin, Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları üzerinde etkili olup olmadığı incelenmektedir. Yo?ntem- Analize tabi tutulan datalar DYY, işsizlik oranı, enflasyon oranı ve GSYİH içindeki en yüksek paya sahip olan sanayi üretim endeksidir. Ocak 2005 - Mayıs 2020 arasındaki dönemleri kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Testlerdeki datalar TCMB EVDS, TÜİK ve Dünya Bankası’ndan alınmıştır. Bulgular- Serileimiz düzey değerde durağan çıkmıştır.Eş bütünleşme test sonucuna göre ,tüm değerlerimizin eş bütünleşik olduğu gözlemlenmiştir.Etki tepki grafiklerine göre tüm değişkenler, her göstergede meydana gelen şokları azaltmak için indirgeyici bir şekilde yanıt vermektedir. Şoklar etkisini ortalama 3 ayda kaybetmiştir. Sonuc?- Türkiye ekonomisinde doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ile ekonomik büyüme göstergeleri enflasyon, işsizlik, sanayi üretim endeksi arasında uzun dönemde sıkı ilişki içerisinde olduğu görülmektedir.Yayın Importance and development of foreign direct investment: an analysis for Turkey(International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 2021-04) Kılıç, Fatih; Teker, DilekAfter 1980, with the increased globalization race investments in Turkey increased significantly with the lifting of barriers to capital flows. With the Economic Stability Decisions of January 24, 1980, Turkey entered this race and entered into full financial release with Decree No. 32 issued in 1989. In this study, the relationship between inflation, unemployment and industrial production, which is one of the economic indicators of foreign direct investments in Turkey, was analyzed with the VAR model. Johansen cointegration test, Impulse - Response analysis and Variance Decomposition analysis were conducted to evaluate the relationship between variables. The outcomes highlight that inflation, unemployment and industrial production have a crucial impact on foreign investments for Turkey.
