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Yayın Projected changes in temperature and precipitation climatology of Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM4.3.5(Elsevier Ltd, 2017-01-01) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThis work investigated projected future changes in seasonal mean air temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm/day) climatology for the three periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, with respect to the control period of 1971–2000 for the Central Asia domain via regional climate model simulations. In order to investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, the Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.3.5 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was driven by two different CMIP5 global climate models. The HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Region 8. We investigated the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.3.5 in reproducing observed climatology over the domain of the Central Asia by using two different global climate model outputs. For the future climatology of the domain, the regional model projects relatively high warming in the warm season with a decrease in precipitation in almost all parts of the domain. A warming trend is notable, especially for the northern part of the domain during the cold season. The results of our study show that surface air temperatures in the region will increase between 3 °C and about 7 °C on average, according to the emission scenarios for the period of 2071–2100 with respect to past period of 1971–2000. Therefore, the projected warming and decrease in precipitation might adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of this region, which is already a mostly arid and semi-arid environment.Yayın Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4(Elsevier Science Inc, 2018-07-01) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, we investigate changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation climatology of CORDEX Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for three periods of 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 with respect to the control period of 1970-2000 by using regional climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with two different CMIP5 global climate models. HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were used to generate 50 km resolution data for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Region 13. We test the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in simulating the observed climatology over domain of the MENA by using the output of two different global climate models. The projection results show relatively high increase of average temperatures from 3 degrees C up to 9 degrees C over the domain for far future (2070-2100). A strong decrease in precipitation is projected in almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional model forced by scenario outputs of two global models. Therefore, warmer and drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more intensely over the CORDEX-MENA domain.Yayın Technical climate change adaptation options of the major ski resorts in Bulgaria(Springer International Publishing, 2016-01-01) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClimate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry, whose survival is highly dependent on the existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. For this matter, it is even now more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by various measures at the technical, operational, and political levels. Technically speaking, snowmaking has become the method most used throughout the industry to combat the immediate impacts of climate change, while moving the ski areas to higher terrains has been standing out as an another option, wherever available and feasible. In this study, the aim is to project the future climatic changes in snowmaking capacity; in other words, technical snow reliability, and the moving requirements, if any, of the four major ski resorts in Bulgaria for the period of 2016-2030 with respect to the control period of 1991- 2005. For this purpose, the past and the future climatic conditions for the technical snow reliability of the ski resorts and their immediate surroundings are determined by the temperature and the relative humidity values generated and projected through the Regional Climate Model RegCM 4.4 of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) by scaling the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR of Max Planck Institute for Meteorology down to a resolution of 10 km. The model is further processed according to the recent RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration scenarios of the IPCC. The model outputs on air temperature and relative humidity are utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures through psychographic conversions that ultimately provide us with thresholds for snowmaking limits. Findings display the temporal changes in the snowmaking hours of the ski resorts at various altitudinal levels calculated according to the environmental lapse rates. Such displays can guide the practitioners in considering investment lives and moving the ski resorts according to optimistic and pessimistic projections.Yayın The Climate Change Impacts on the regional crop yield in Turkey(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2015-04-17) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThis paper emphasizes the relationship between climate change and crop yield in Turkey and discusses how the variables representing the climate change impacts affect the regional crop yield in Turkey. The impacts of climate change are represented as the function of vulnerability for the period of 1980-2010. There are 2 steps in this research. Firstly, regional climate modeling is conducted for obtaining to the climatic parameters, namely total precipitation and mean air temperature. We focus on the role of those climatic variables on the crop yield. The projections were performed according to the scenarios of IPCC, namely RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5. According to the regional model results, it is seen that there will be an increase up to the 4 ◦C in mean air temperatures of Turkey for the period of 2020 – 2050 with respect to the period of 1970 – 2000 and also precipitation climatology of Turkey shows a decrease up to 1.2 mm/day. In the second part of the study, climatic parameters are combined and interpreted together through the panel data analysis and we examined that how the variables representing the climate change impacts have an influence on the crop yield in the some crucial regions for the crop production of Turkey. Estimated risks for crops in the panel data analysis differ from each other resulting from increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall.Yayın Projections for changes in natural and technical snow reliability of a major Turkish ski resort by using RegCM4.3.5(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2014-05-02) Öztürk, Tuğba; Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClimate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry whose survival is highly dependent on existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. The common knowledge requires that in order for a ski resort to be viable, it has to perform operations for at least 100 days in seven out of ten winters. For this matter, it is now even more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by technical snowmaking. In this study, projected future changes for the period of 2010-2040, 2040-2070, and 2070-2100 in air temperature, relative humidity, and snow depth climatology and variability with respect to the control period of 1970-2000 were assessed for the domain of a major ski resort in Turkey. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre, MPI-ESM-MR of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, GFDL-ESM2M of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory were downscaled to 10 km for the resort and its surrounding region. Both the projections and the downscaling were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC. The outputs on snow depth were used for a count of the changes on snow cover duration sufficient for skiing actitivies, signaling natural snow-reliability, whereas the outputs on air temperature and relative humidity were utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures. The latter measure was used to interpret the changes in the snowmaking capacity, in other words; technical snow-reliability, of the resort.Yayın A refined methodology for modelling climate change impacts on snow sports tourism(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2015-04-17) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventNature-based tourism is one of the most vulnerable sectors of the economy against climate change. Among its types, winter tourism stands out as the most critical due to the relatively high exposure and sensitivity of snow cover to the anthropogenic warming trends. In this study, we aim at improving previous works by Ozturk et al. where snow reliability of ski resorts have been examined through projections based on regional climate model outputs downscaled from various GCMs. Major improvements to these studies will be related to increasing the resolution, obtaining snow depth values from snow-water equivalent outputs, and hourly, instead of the daily, calculations of wet bulb temperatures. Daily snow depth values will be utilized for 100-days rule that looks for at least 100 days of snow cover at a minimum of 30 cm in order for a ski resort to be viable, whereas the wet bulb temperatures below -7 oC will indicate the snowmaking capacity. The domain of analysis will be the Balkans, the Middle East and the Caucasus. Therefore the spatial gap in the mostly Euro- and Amero-centric literature will also be improved. The domain will be modelled through RegCM 4.4.2 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics basing its resolution on MPI-ESM-MR of Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie and the concentration scenario RCP 4.5 for a realistic tourism development future of 2020-2050.Yayın Investigation of the drought probabilities over Turkey in a changing climate(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Akbaş, Abdullah; Saygılı, Sibel; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventAs a consequence of the negative impacts of climate change, Turkey is under risk of an increased drought conditions. In this study, we aim to detect the possible changes in the intensity and frequency of drought conditions and to identify the spatial and temporal distributions of these changes throughout the country. Therefore, firstly the outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for Turkey via Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). RCP8.5, which is the worst case emission pathway, is used to make future projection for the period of 2071 - 2100 with respect to the reference period of 1971 - 2000 over Turkey. Thereafter, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values, which are computed by using monthly precipitation totals data of the model, are obtained and classified for three timescales (i.e. 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month). Lastly, the spatial distribution maps, which determine the changes in drought probabilities over Turkey, are created in order to characterize better the impact of climate change on Turkey’s drought patterns.Yayın Analysis of projected changes in precipitation regions of Turkey(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) Akbaş, Abdullah; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClassification and clustering are important issues in climatology studies for water management. In this study, we examine the precipitation regions of Turkey with combination of the regional climate model outputs with a hierarchical cluster technique. Therefore, the outputs of the HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre were downscaled to 50 km for Turkey via Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) for the period of 2070 - 2100 with respect to the present period of 1970 - 2000 under two distinct case scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Thereafter, Ward’s method, which is commonly used in climate research, was also performed in order to cluster the precipitation data. In this context, spatial variations in precipitation regions of Turkey were determined for different climate change pathways.Yayın Case study Turkey: climate changeand coastal tourism: impacts of climate change on the turquoise coast(CAB International, 2017-11-29) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Akbaş, Abdullah; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThis chapter tries to assess the severity of expected climate change impacts on tourism at the Turquoise Coast (Turkey) and build up an adaptation agenda for the concerned parties. First, sea level rise projections are considered to understand the degree of exposure at the immediate coastal zone. A storm and flood risk projection follows to visualize any additional risks on the coasts as well as for the nautical tourism routes. A climate model also provides with outputs for determining the changes in the touristic climate comfort as well as spotting any increase of heatwave events. The changing windiness characteristics are also investigated to determine implications for surf tourism. Lastly, an aridity index and water deficit projections are interpreted to understand a conflicting future where water availability could decrease, whereas the growth of the tourism industry, particularly golf tourism, would imply more consumption of water resources. The assessments are finalized with implications on the future of a major component of diving tourism in the north Aegean - the red coral.Yayın Assessment of projected changes in temperature and precipitation climatology over the CORDEX region 9 via multi model ensemble mean of CMIP5 models(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, we conduct a multi-model ensemble mean approach in order to investigate of projected changesin fundamental climate variables (i.e. mean air temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature,and precipitation total) over the CORDEX-Australasia domain based on the outputs of various coupled globalclimate models (GCMs) participating in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project (CMIP5). In this respect, in order to analyze projected future changes in temperature andprecipitation climatology, seasonal averages, and inter-annual variability over the Australasia (known as Region9) domain, where is one of fourteen domains of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), we focus on historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments of the GCMs for reference- (1981 - 2000),near- (2016 - 2035), mid- (2046 - 2065), and long-term (2081 - 2100), respectively.
