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Yayın RegCM4.3.5 Bölgesel iklim modelini kullanarak Türkiye ve çevresi bölgelerin yakın gelecekteki hava sıcaklığı ve yağış klimatolojileri için öngörülen değişikliklerin incelenmesi(Ege Üniversitesi, 2014-06-01) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventBu çalışmada 1970 – 2000 referans dönemi iklimine göre 2020 – 2050 dönemi için Türkiye’nin ortalama hava sıcaklığı ve yağış klimatolojilerinde öngörülen değişiklikler, bölgesel iklim modeli benzetimleri kullanılarak araştırıldı. Yakın gelecekteki iklim koşullarında öngörülen değişimleri incelemek için Uluslararası Teorik Fizik Merkezi’ne ait olan RegCM4.3.5 isimli bölgesel iklim modeli üç farklı küresel modelden yararlanılarak koşuldu. Max Planck Meteoroloji Enstitüsü’ne ait MPI-ESM-MR, Met Office Hadley Merkezi’ne ait HadGEM2 ve Amerikan Ulusal Okyanus ve Atmosfer Dairesi Jeofiziksel Akışkanlar Dinamiği Laboratuvarı’na ait GFDL-ESM2M modelleri Türkiye ve çevresi için dinamik olarak 50 km’ye alt ölçeklendirildi. Öngörüler, Hükümetlerarası İklim Değişikliği Paneli’nin (IPCC) RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 salım senaryolarına göre gerçekleştirildi. Model sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’de ortalama hava sıcaklıklarında 1970 – 2000 dönemine göre 2020 – 2050 döneminde 0.5 °C ile 4 °C arasında değişen artışlar olacaktır. Bu artış, sıcak mevsimlerde soğuk mevsimlere göre daha fazla olacaktır. Türkiye’nin yağış klimatolojisinde ise, bölgesel iklim modeli sonuçlarına göre, özellikle ülkenin Akdeniz ikliminin egemen olduğu batı ve güney bölgelerinde ve tüm mevsimlerde, yaklaşık 0.4 mm/gün ile 1.2 mm/gün arasında değişen belirgin yağış azalışlarının oluşması beklenir.Yayın Impact of climate change on natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacities, and wind conditions of ski Resorts in Northeast Turkey: a dynamical downscaling approach(Mdpi Ag, 2016-04) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventMany ski resorts worldwide are going through deteriorating snow cover conditions due to anthropogenic warming trends. As the natural and the artificially supported, i.e., technical, snow reliability of ski resorts diminish, the industry approaches a deadlock. For this reason, impact assessment studies have become vital for understanding vulnerability of ski tourism. This study considers three resorts at one of the rapidly emerging ski destinations, Northeast Turkey, for snow reliability analyses. Initially one global circulation model is dynamically downscaled by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 for 1971-2000 and 2021-2050 periods along the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Next, the projected climate outputs are converted into indicators of natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacity, and wind conditions. The results show an overall decline in the frequencies of naturally snow reliable days and snowmaking capacities between the two periods. Despite the decrease, only the lower altitudes of one ski resort would face the risk of losing natural snow reliability and snowmaking could still compensate for forming the base layer before the critical New Year's week. On the other hand, adverse high wind conditions improve as to reduce the number of lift closure days at all resorts. Overall, this particular region seems to be relatively resilient against climate change.Yayın Assessment of simulated changes in air temperature and precipitation over the mediterranean region via multi-model ensemble means of CMIP5 models(Middle East Technical University, 2014-06-23) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, a multi-model ensemble mean approach was conducted in order to investigate the projected changes in near surface air temperatures and precipitation totals over the Mediterranean region. Among sixty seven different models of thirty modeling groups all around the world participating in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), fourteen models were used. In this respect, we focused on two distinct scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three different future periods (i.e. 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100) to examine accurately the foreseen changes in two fundamental climate variables (near surface air temperature and precipitation total) for the Mediterranean region.Yayın Investigation of projected changes for near future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey and surrounding regions by using REGCM4.3.5(Middle East Technical University, 2014-06-23) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, projected future changes for the period of 2020 – 2050 in mean air temperature andprecipitation climatology and year-to-year variability with respect to the control period of 1970 –2000 were investigated for the domain of Turkey via regional climate model simulations. In orderto investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was driven by three differentglobal climate models. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre, MPI-ESMMR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, GFDL-ESM2M global climatemodel of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratory were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for Turkey and its surrounding region. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the model results, there will be anincrease between 0.5 °C and 4 °C in mean air temperatures of Turkey for the period of 2020 –2050 with respect to the period of 1970 – 2000. This warming will be more severe in warm seasons than cold seasons. Changes varying from -0.4 mm/day to -1.2 mm/day in precipitationclimatology of Turkey are expected according to the regional climate model results.Yayın Simulations of future drought conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM 4.3.5(2015-01-14) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this work, projected future changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation climatology, inter-annual and seasonal variability and climatic aridity/humidity conditions for the period 2070-2100 over the large Central Asia region with respect to present climate (from 1970 to 2000) were simulated based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX Region 8. We investigated the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.3.5 in reproducing observed climatology over the domain of Central Asia by using 2 different global climate model outputs. For the future climatology of the domain, the regional model predicts relatively high warming in the warm season and northern part of the domain at cold season with a decrease in precipitation almost all part of the domain. The results of our study show that surface temperatures in the region will increase from 3 °C up to more than 7 °C on average according to the emission scenarios for the period 2070-2100 with respect to past period 1970-2000. Therefore, the projected warming and decrease in precipitation and also resultant or associated increased aridity and more frequent and severe drought events very likely adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of this region, which is already characterised with mostly arid and semi-arid climate and ecosystems.Yayın Investigation of high-resolution climate projections over Turkey and its surrounding regions using RegCM4.4(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2017-04-28) Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventIn this study, projected future changes for the period of 2021-2050 in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and year-to-year variability with respect to the control period of 1971-2000 were investigated for the domain of Turkey and its surrounding regions via regional climate model simulations. In order to investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of ICTP (the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was driven by two different global climate models. HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were dynamically downscaled to 10 km for Turkey and its surrounding regions. The projections were performed based on the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Yayın Future projection of air temperature and climatology for Cyprus by using RegCM4.4(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2018-04-13) Deler, Ferhan Büşra; Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventClimate change is the major problem of the world especially for island nations and Cyprus is one of this vulnerable regions. In this study, high-resolution regional climate simulations for the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1970 - 2000 were examined for Cyprus. Moreover, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPIESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 10 km resolution by using double nesting. The emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) are used for projections. The result shows that while the temperature and sea surface temperature will increase, the precipitation will decrease. Obviously this is severely threatening the culture and life of the citizens of the island.Yayın Impacts of climate change on the climate extremes of the Middle East(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Çöllü, Kamil; Deler, F. Büşra; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThe Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Because of the importance of the region and its vulnerability to global climate change, the studies including the investigation of projected changes in the climate of the Middle East play a crucial role in order to struggle with the negative effects of climate change. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and climate extremes indices in the Middle East and it investigates the changes in the number of extreme events as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). As part of the study, the regional climate model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is run to obtain future projection data.Yayın İklim değişikliğinin Ergan Dağı kış sporları merkezi'nde yapay karlama kapasitesine etkisi(Erzincan Üniversitesi Turizm ve Otelcilik Meslek Yüksekokulu Yayınları, 2016-04) Demiroğlu, Osman Cenk; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet Leventİklim değişikliği, dünyada 80 ülkeye yayılan 6.000’e yakın kayak alanı için öncelikli bir tehdit haline gelmiştir. Enlem ve yükselti avantajı bulunmayan kayak merkezlerinde iklim değişikliğinin etkileri şimdiden gözlemlenmeye başlamış, nispeten avantajlı merkezler için ise geleceğe yönelik senaryo çalışmaları hız kazanmıştır. Bu tür çalışmalar, bir yandan merkezlerin iklim değişikliği karşısındaki kırılganlık derecelerini belirlerken diğer yandan da uyum kapasitelerini incelemektedir. Kar sporları turizminin iklim değişikliğine uyumu konusunda ise öncelikli olarak yapay karlama ve taşınma gibi teknik alternatifler mercek altına alınmaktadır. Bu çalışma, son senelerde kış turizmi yatırımları hızla artan Türkiye’nin yeni kayak merkezlerinden Ergan Dağı’nın (Erzincan) yapay karlama kapasitesine yönelik bir senaryo analizi içermektedir. Bunun için, HadGEM2-ES genel dolaşım modeli RegCM4.4 bölgesel iklim modeli ile koşularak 10 km çözünürlüğe indirgenmiş, 1971-2000 ve iyimser RCP4.5 sera gazı konsantrasyonu senaryosuna göre 2021-2050 dönemleri için kayak merkezinin 1924 m rakımındaki yakın yüzey hava sıcaklığı ve bağıl nem değerleri elde edilmiştir. Bu iki değişkene dair değerlerden yapay karlama sınırlarını belirleyen yaş termometre sıcaklıkları hesaplanmış ve kayak merkezinin geçmiş ve gelecek yapay karlama kapasitesi 0,5 oC/hm düşüş oranı kullanılarak kayak pistlerinin farklı rakımlarına göre değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, yapay karlama kapasitesinde genel bir azalma eğilimi olacağı tespit edilmiş ve bu azalışın merkezin alçak kesimlerinde taban katmanı yapımını riske sokabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.Yayın Impacts of the future changes in extreme events on the regional crop yield in Turkey(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2016-04-22) An, Nazan; Turp, Mustafa Tufan; Öztürk, Tuğba; Kurnaz, Mehmet LeventThe changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey.
