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Yayın Failure of an exchange-rate-based stabilization plan in Turkey(M E Sharpe, 2003-02) Gökkent, Giyas; Moslares, Carlos; Amiel-Saenz, RafaelThe Turkish exchange-rate-based stabilization plan adopted in 2000 has been a spectacular failure, lasting a mere fourteen months despite a relatively flexible peg regime and preannounced exit strategy. The final three months of the currency regime were marred by the eruption of a banking sector crisis that quickly developed into a currency crisis, quelled only by external loans and a blanket guarantee by the sovereign of all banking sector liabilities. This was ultimately to no avail as the lira was allowed to float following a full-fledged currency crisis in late February 2001. The usual indicators of crisis did not point to imminent turmoil in November 2000 despite widespread concern about eventual dire developments. To identify the source of the November crisis, one must weigh the factors that led economic agents, and banks in particular, to expect higher interest rates after the fall.Yayın Did you read the news before playing the advergame? The effects of priming, persuasion knowledge and placement strength on brand attitude and recall in advergames(Inderscience Publishers, 2020-06-01) Sağkaya Güngör, AyşegülWith the advergames, marketers reach their goal of conveying their message to their target audience in an entertaining way. The study aims to find out, first, how the priming effects responses of the advergame players toward the brand. Additionally, persuasion knowledge and placement strength were investigated, along with priming. A 2 × 2 × 2 between-subjects laboratory experiment was conducted with 204 participants. Results show that priming has significant effects on brand attitude and recall. The effects were partially persistent after the introduction of persuasion knowledge. When the placement strength was introduced, it was observed significant differences on brand attitude and recall.Yayın The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets(Springer, 2020-05-29) Demirer, Rıza; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınThis paper examines the predictive power of the U.S. term structure over return volatility in emerging stock markets. Decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components, the expectations factor and the maturity premium, we show that the U.S. term structure indeed contains predictive information over emerging stock market volatility, even after controlling for country specific factors including turnover and market size. While we observe heterogeneous patterns across emerging markets in terms of their predictability with respect to the U.S. term structure, we find that the market’s expectation of future short term rates, implied by the expectations factor, serves as a stronger predictor of stock market volatility compared to the maturity premium component of the yield spread. We also find that the U.S. term structure has gained further predictive value following the global financial crisis, particularly for the BRICS nations of China, Russia, and S. Africa. Overall, our findings suggest that policymakers and investors can utilize interest rate signals from the U.S. Treasury yields to make projections over stock market volatility in their local markets, however, distinguishing between the two components of the yield curve could provide additional forecasting power depending on the country of focus.Yayın The effect of mad cow (BSE) scare on beef demand and sales loss: The case of Izmir(Scientific Technical Research Council Turkey-Tubitak, 2005) Miran, Bülent; Akgüngör, Emine SedefThis paper investigates the effect of the BSE scare on beef consumption due to the intense media coverage. Using monthly data, a beef demand model for January 1995-February 1997 period is estimated for Izmir Province. Beef sales dropped immediately after the media coverage on BSE in April 1996 and continued through June 1996 when the intense media coverage stopped. The econometric model reveals that beef sales in Izmir would have been 36.4 % higher if the BSE crisis never occurred. The annual individual willingness to pay is $0.5224 per year to avoid consuming BSE contaminated meat.Yayın The US term structure and return volatility in global REIT markets(Asia University, 2020-09) Demirer, Rıza; Gupta, Rangan; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınThis paper examines the information content of the U.S. term structure of interest rates on the market for real estate investment trusts (REITs) by decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components that reflect the expectations factor and the maturity premium. We show that the expectations factor component of the U.S yield curve has significant explanatory power over return volatility in REIT stocks, both in the U.S. and globally, even after controlling for stock market trading activity. The expectations factor is generally found to have a positive effect on REIT market volatility, more significantly for the U.S. and Japanese REITs, highlighting the role of global funding conditions (via expected short rates) on return fluctuations in real estate markets. Comparing the findings for the pre-and post-global crisis periods, however, we find that the U.S. term structure has largely lost its explanatory power over global REIT markets, implied by largely insignificant effects during the post-global crisis period. The findings highlight the changing dynamics in REIT investments in the aftermath of the 2018 global credit crunch, possibly due to the slowdown of investmentsin the real estate sector globally, and suggest that investors will have to focus more on the idiosyncratic risk factors that drive these markets.Yayın A note on the examination of the fisher hypothesis by using panel co-integration tests with break(Institute foe Economic Forecasting, 2016) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mübariz; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, AydınOne problem encountered when examining the Fisher hypothesis is that various policy changes and economic shocks may induce structural shifts in the long-run relation. We explore the argument that panel cointegration tests based on common correlated effect estimators have reasonably good power and size properties, even in the presence of structural breaks, if the timing of structural shifts roughly coincide to each other across individual group members. Using the data from Omay et al. (2015), which pays special attention to cross-section dependence issue but ignores the possibility of structural break in the data, we provide support to the argument above.
