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Yayın A DBN based reactive maintenance model for a complex system in thermal power plants(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2019-10) Özgür Ünlüakın, Demet; Türkali, Busenur; Karacaörenli, Ayşe; Aksezer, Sezgin ÇağlarThermal power plants consist of several complex systems having many interacting hidden components. Any unexpected failure may lead to prolonged downtime and serious lost profits. Therefore, implementing an effective maintenance policy is crucial for this sector. Although preventive maintenance has become a more popular strategy, it does not completely prevent the need for corrective maintenance. Our aim in this study is to tackle the corrective maintenance implementation problem of a multi-component partially observable dynamic system based on a regenerative air heater in a thermal power plant. We propose eight methods having different efficiency measures with respect to time, effect and probability criteria to minimize the total number of maintenance activities in a given planning horizon. Performances of these methods are evaluated under corrective maintenance strategy using dynamic Bayesian networks. The results show that fault effect methods with best working state probability measure perform better than the others considering both the total amount of maintenance activities and also the solution time. We also point out how the methods can be implemented in real-life and how the results can be used for requirements planning. Furthermore, the proposed methods can be used for the corrective maintenance of all systems having hidden interacting components.Yayın Dating fossil root cast (Black Sea coast, Turkey) using thermoluminescence: Implications for windblown drift of shelf carbonates during MIS 2(Elsevier Ltd., 2016-05-16) Polymeris, George S.; Kitis, George; Güneç Kıyak, Nafiye; Theodosoglou, Eleni; Tsirliganis, Nestor C.; Ertek, Topçu Ahmet; Erginal, Ahmet EvrenRhizoliths are mostly sub-aerially exposed root prints which appear through removal of the rock units that cap them. A horizontal-lying residual of a rhizolith, consisting purely of soft inner core material of white color was recovered 10 km west of Şile, Istanbul, in northwest Turkey within laminated oolithic massive aeolianite. The inner part, consisting purely of calcium carbonate, was dated by applying thermoluminescence, while for the outer shelves optically stimulated luminescence of quartz was used for age assessment. The age of the CaCO3 infill occupying the original place of the decayed plant roots was found to be 26.8 (±5.0) ka, corresponding to MIS 2. When compared with the ages of the middle (105.2 ± 15.6 ka) and outer (127 ± 9 ka) layers, corresponding to the later stage of MIS 5e or early stage of MIS 5d, the inner core coincides with the last glacial period when the sea-level was lower than the present, promoting transportation of ooids by offshore winds in conjunction with the exposed shelf carbonates. Based on the results yielded, rhizolith is much younger than the host rock aeolianite and witnesses to last glacial sea level lowstand when removal of shelf carbonates by offshore winds was promoted from the exposed shallow shelf plain. The results provide strong evidence that rhizoliths may not be coeval with the aeolianites within which they are embedded.Yayın Failure analysis and warranty modeling of used cars(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2011-09) Aksezer, Sezgin ÇağlarReliability is an important aspect of product perception and manufacturers are compelled to take corrective actions on the items failing within the warranty period. Automotive manufacturers are being exposed to significant operating costs as a result of warranty claims affecting an individual unit or mandatory (sometimes voluntary) recalls affecting a batch. Underlying principles of warranty modeling are built by considering both subjective issues and objective constraints such as competition, quality, and performance under the goal of achieving desired levels of reliability and cost in a balanced manner. This paper reviews the warranty cost models with an emphasis on the failure analysis of used vehicles. Expected warranty costs are calculated by taking into account the age, usage, and maintenance data of the product in question. Failure intensities and characteristics are identified in order to propose a policy that highlights the trade-off between the cost and the warranty length. A case study on a popular brand's initiation of factory certified pre-owned program for the local automobile market of Turkey is presented in detail. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Yayın Performance analysis of an aggregation and disaggregation solution procedure to obtain a maintenance plan for a partially observable multi-component system(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2017-11) Özgür Ünlüakın, Demet; Bilgiç, TanerWe analyze the performance of an aggregation and disaggregation procedure in giving the optimal maintenance decisions for a multi-component system under partial observations in a finite horizon. The components deteriorate in time and their states are hidden to the decision maker. Nevertheless, it is possible to observe signals about the system status and to replace components in each period. The aim is to find a cost effective replacement plan for the components in a given time horizon. The problem is formulated as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). We aggregate states and actions in order to reduce the problem space and obtain an optimal aggregate policy which we disaggregate by simulating it using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN). The procedure is statistically compared to an approximate POMDP solver that uses the full state space information. Cases where aggregation performs relatively better are isolated and it is shown that k-out-of-n systems belong to this class.Yayın Software defect prediction using Bayesian networks(Springer, 2014-02) Okutan, Ahmet; Yıldız, Olcay TanerThere are lots of different software metrics discovered and used for defect prediction in the literature. Instead of dealing with so many metrics, it would be practical and easy if we could determine the set of metrics that are most important and focus on them more to predict defectiveness. We use Bayesian networks to determine the probabilistic influential relationships among software metrics and defect proneness. In addition to the metrics used in Promise data repository, we define two more metrics, i.e. NOD for the number of developers and LOCQ for the source code quality. We extract these metrics by inspecting the source code repositories of the selected Promise data repository data sets. At the end of our modeling, we learn the marginal defect proneness probability of the whole software system, the set of most effective metrics, and the influential relationships among metrics and defectiveness. Our experiments on nine open source Promise data repository data sets show that response for class (RFC), lines of code (LOC), and lack of coding quality (LOCQ) are the most effective metrics whereas coupling between objects (CBO), weighted method per class (WMC), and lack of cohesion of methods (LCOM) are less effective metrics on defect proneness. Furthermore, number of children (NOC) and depth of inheritance tree (DIT) have very limited effect and are untrustworthy. On the other hand, based on the experiments on Poi, Tomcat, and Xalan data sets, we observe that there is a positive correlation between the number of developers (NOD) and the level of defectiveness. However, further investigation involving a greater number of projects is needed to confirm our findings.Yayın A novel kernel to predict software defectiveness(Elsevier Science Inc, 2016-09) Okutan, Ahmet; Yıldız, Olcay TanerAlthough the software defect prediction problem has been researched for a long time, the results achieved are not so bright. In this paper, we propose to use novel kernels for defect prediction that are based on the plagiarized source code, software clones and textual similarity. We generate precomputed kernel matrices and compare their performance on different data sets to model the relationship between source code similarity and defectiveness. Each value in a kernel matrix shows how much parallelism exists between the corresponding files of a software system chosen. Our experiments on 10 real world datasets indicate that support vector machines (SVM) with a precomputed kernel matrix performs better than the SVM with the usual linear kernel in terms of F-measure. Similarly, when used with a precomputed kernel, the k-nearest neighbor classifier (KNN) achieves comparable performance with respect to KNN classifier. The results from this preliminary study indicate that source code similarity can be used to predict defect proneness.Yayın Reliability of direct-to-home teleneuropsychological assessment: a within-subject design study(Routledge, 2025-07-04) Yıldırım, Elif; Soncu Büyükişcan, Ezgi; Akça Kalem, Şükriye; Gürvit, HakanObjective: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the need to continue diagnosis and treatment processes, in addition to scientific research, led to a rapid shift towards direct-to-home tele-neuropsychology administrations, the reliability and validity of which had not been clearly established then. This study, therefore, aimed to examine the reliability of direct-to-home tele-neuropsychological assessment (TNP). Method: The sample included 105 cognitively healthy individuals aged between 50–83 years, and 47 patients diagnosed with neurocognitive disorders (mild cognitive impairment and early-stage Alzheimer’s type dementia). All participants underwent both face-to-face and teleneuropsychological assessments in a counterbalanced order. Results: The results revealed that performances across measures of attention, working memory, verbal fluency, verbal and visual memory, and visual perception were comparable across assessment modalities. Intraclass correlation coefficients of the tests ranged from.54 to.92. Conclusions: The findings of the study provide support for direct-to-home teleneuropsychological assessment among patients with neurocognitive disorders. Neuropsychological tests relying on verbal administration and independent of motor performance may represent a reliable alternative for this patient group when administered in settings where external distractions or technological limitations are controlled. For cognitively healthy individuals, on the other hand, the reliability of the TNP application is more questionable for memory and some executive function tests and therefore needs further exploration.
